COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: immediate planning; balancing life years saved against lost due to consequences management; and evaluating ethical issues associated with tacit willingness pay substantially more epidemic, than those other diseases. Against this background Verity et al. (2020, Lancet Infections Diseases) have rapidly assembled case data used statistical modelling infer IFR COVID-19. We attempted an in-depth review their approach, identify what extent are sufficiently informative about play a greater role assumptions, tried assumptions that appear key role. Given difficulties sources, we provide crude alternative analysis based on Diamond Princess Cruise ship from China, argue that, given problems, clinical obtain can only be stop-gap measure. What needed near direct measurement size by PCR and/or antibody testing random samples at risk population.